Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
