The Way This Unusual Season Redefined the Conventional Coach of the Year Formula.

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still